PEAK OIL

Peak oil is here!  We need to find the middle ground between  complacency and panic.
Deal with reality or reality will deal with you!

 

We have now passed Peak Oil which began back in 1979 (some disagree with this date but all concede we have past peak oil) the decline is unavoidable. Few can conceive of what lies ahead. Complacency reigns. By far the great majority of people, including those at the very top in all strata of society, including governments, industry, and the media, will be caught unawares.

Our Dependence

on

Fossil Fuel

MUST CHANGE

so what is the answer?

 

The "FOREVER OIL CRASH"
has already begun

Remember, it's the
Halfway Point that Matters

Supplies go down the prices go up.
It's simple economics

Remember, once it's burned,
it's gone for good!
 

"Yes, but Couldn't One Huge Discovery...
or Alaska...
or Deep-water Drilling...
Change the Equation?"
Unfortunately, Absolutely Not...

Matt Simmons
CEO Simmons Int'l

Investment banker to the oil and gas industry

Author of
"Twilight in the Desert"
 
The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.

Power Point
Presentation

Energy expert Matt Simmons says

that the day Saudi Arabia hits its energy peak,

that's the day the rest of the world
will wake up to the reality of "Peak Oil"...

by tail spinning into chaos!

Saudi Arabia currently supplies about 73%
of all the worlds new oil.


No matter what anybody tells you — or what you want to believe — we're not heading into a "recovery." Rather, we're plunging headlong into what could easily be the most vicious and unpredictable financial cycle of the past 150 years!

 

Out of the 65 biggest oil-producing countries, 54 have already slammed into the wall of peak production. That's serious.

 

When Dr. Hubbert first revealed his "Peak Oil" predictions, he explained that just before and after the "peak," there would be short plateau of FLAT oil production... followed by a steep collapse. Guess what's happening right now.

Most countries
have already
peaked
see below

1970
1970
1972
1974
1974
1976
1979
1982
1983
1988
1995
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2004
2004
US
Libya
Kuwait 
Iran
Canada
conv
Romania
Brunei 
Peru
Russia
Alaska
India
Indonesia
Trinidad
China
Venezuela
UK
Australia
Norway
Mexico
Malaysia
Energy minister will hold summit to calm rising fears over peak oil
A report last month warned of complacency over the huge dislocation from a terminal decline in global oil production. .....He is convinced that Britain must prepare as quickly as possible for a situation when oil becomes so expensive that international trade is hampered and globalisation breaks down.
The UK needs to take action to avoid the massive dislocation that could be caused by the early onset of "peak oil" – the point that marks the start of terminal decline in global oil production.
Source UK Guardian 21 Mar 2010

Do we heed the  warnings

or

do we carry onoblivious

 

Things will change!

 

What can we do about it?

NEW IEA REPORT ON OIL PRODUCTION - 11 November 2009

IEA - International Energy Agency

Chart showing PEAK CONVENTIONAL OIL is past

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower. The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.  Source

Peak Oil is near - IEA Whistleblower Source

Claims Agency Has Downplayed Looming Oil Shortage - IEA Whistleblower  Source

Oil Production Capacity Deliberately Overstated - says IEA Whistleblower  Source

PEAK OIL – THE RISKS

We’re in trouble. With a capital “T,” and that rhymes with “P,” and that stands for Peak Oil. By every measure, the world’s output of crude oil peaked between 2005 and 2007. The future of conventional petroleum output is downhill. Things could go wrong with energy supplies in any of a dozen places, according to Mr. Simmons, he expects net oil exports from Mexico to vanish within 24 months or less.

But even without a supply shock, Simmons believes that the mere inevitability of declining production will cause oil to hit $200 a barrel by the end of next year. Longer term, Mr. Simmons expects to see oil at $500-700 per barrel. “People need to understand how expensive it is to obtain oil,” said Simmons.

Much of the world’s energy infrastructure is old and rusting and will require several trillions of dollars to replace – if it can be replaced.
Source
Peak Oil” Has Gone 12 August 2009
  • Global crude oil production has probably peaked
  • New discoveries have dried up
  • There is a shortage of capital for investment purposes Source

Peak Oil - How Will You Ride the Slide?

Click Here
 to watch video

Peak Oil - How Will You Ride the Slide?

PEAK OIL - THE END OF CHEAP OIL
Former Holden Chief's Grim Warning
Buy an LPG car now or get used to walking. That's the warning you would have heard issued on Radio Australia yesterday. 

Not by some greenie or "Peak Oil" nut. No, this prediction comes, amazingly enough, from
former advanced engineering chief at General Motors Holden, Professor Laurie Spark. He's the latest industry insider that's joined the argument we've been making for the 12 months: 
Professor Sparke says when the global economic downturn is over, demand for oil is going to far outstrip supply and prices will go through the roof. "As soon as the countries that use large amounts of oil for their industry - China, India, Japan, USA - recover, demand will exceed supply," he said. "There are signs already that the economy in China is starting to pick up and Japan's picking up, and already this year we've seen the price of oil double from January to July. So my expectation is within the next five years, we're going to have trouble." Some think trouble could come much sooner. 

The issue is deceptively simple. Australia's reliance on foreign oil will increase two thirds by 2015. But the amount of foreign oil on the market is projected to shrink by 25% within three years. That's critical. But it's not the core of the problem

What really keeps us awake at night is the fact that Canberra has no policy in place to deal with what's about to happen. How will this crisis unfold? 

New Zealand is in a similar position where the Government has no policy for the coming peak oil and end of cheap oil.

In a collapsing post-oil world, what chance would there be for our re-supply oil tankers making it past Papua New Guinea or even Tasmania? A sharp reassessment of the true cost of oil would hurt us anyway. Nowhere is harder to reach by ship or plane, so an era of permanently higher fuel prices could devastate our tourist industry, cripple our food exports.

Read Full article from The Press, Christchurch, NZ - 11 July, 2009    Part 1   Part 2 

Question:

What effect does the

 Current World,

Financial Crisis,

World Recession,

Energy Crisis,

have on decline

on Fossil Fuels?

Answer:

A more rapid decline
than was previously anticipated    see graph

Matt Simmons: Peak Oil Will Dwarf Financial Crunch Soon
  • Supplies of conventional oil did peak in 2005 and that “the game is over”
  • Crude oil supplies are currently declining at over 9% per year and that this is structural
  • The prospects of finding more oil are negligible

The current recession must be seen as the first global effect of the now rapid decline in net energy from oil and gas.

IF current trends continue without finding alternative sources of energy
  • 2008: each person on earth has about 4.5 bbl per year of crude to live on.
  • 2013: oil availability per head is down to 3.3 bbl
  • 2030: oil availability per head plummets down to 0.4 bbl per head

By 2013 standard of living standards will drop by 27%
By 2030 earning power drops to about $9 per day or less than $4,000 pa

This is frightening, there is real urgency to find alternatives and time is short!

Disrupted transport fuel supplies mean disrupted power and communications supplies regardless of the temporary availability of other fossil fuels (gas and/or coal). None of the existing energy, transport and communications infrastructures can cope with the
crisis that is unfolding
in two intimately related waves, energy crisis first and rapid ecological degradation next.

The Emergency – it is global, it is under way, less than 10 years remain to address it if the worst is to be avoided. It threatens the survival of the human species as a whole and of some 95% of the whole of life on Earth.


The Emergency Response – over the next 10 years it is necessary to achieve globally a radical turn away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable ways based on solar derived energy resources

We need transition to new sustainable ways of doing business and living. Right at the forefront they require a complete re-engineering of all information, communications, energy and transport infrastructures in record time.

Governments are ill equipped to respond quickly to achieve changes on such a global scale. Only entrepreneurship has a track record demonstrating the feasibility of achieving a transition to sustainability within the required timeframe.

Australia and New Zealand must expect severe supply disruptions before by 2013 as the supply gap between global demand widens. The super powers, the USA, the EU, Russia, Japan and China are already taking measure to ensure their needs and Australia and New Zealand are extremely vulnerable and are likely to be among the first of the industrialised countries to experience severe supply disruptions. 

IT MDI – Energy 100% Solar and Sustainable Initiative with their Information, Communication, Energy, Transport (ICET) technology package and the related business and financial models have been explicitly designed to achieve the rapid transition required.  Read More  (Great cartoon Page 6!)
 

DID YOU KNOW NOW   2010 or earlier????  
Oil reached $100
a barrel
in January 2008

 Oil is expect to double in
next 2 years 

Are you prepared?
What are the alternatives?
What impact will this have on your budget, you work, cost of food, mortgage, transport. Think about it..

New Zealand Oil price drops but no fall in petrol cost - PAIN AT THE PUMP 

Average fuel prices:

January 3: US-traded Brent crude US$100 a barrel, highest ever. 91 octane 171.6c a litre, diesel 125.8c.

February 4: US-traded Brent crude US$88.98 a barrel,  91 octane 170.9ca litre, diesel 120.9c-125.9c. Source

Question who is ripping who off? Will our fuel be $3.50 or $4.00 a litre in two years? Oil companies making record profits
Maybe the consumer needs an alternative!  

Think Compressed Air for Transport and Electricity Generation!

PAIN AT THE PUMP 

In May 2008 Petrol Prices in New Zealand topped $2.00
mark for the first time!  
Yet few people realise we have reached "Peak Oil"
and prices will only continue to rise.
The world need to address this urgently and seek, new and sustainable, environmentally friendly solutions.

Think Compressed Air for Transport

and Electricity Generation!

 

Peak Oil, Climate Change & All That Jazz

An e-Book by Dr Louis Arnoux
 Managing Director of IT-MDI Energy Ltd

Download your copy from
http://www.itmdi-energy.com/news/arnoux_publication/

or Click Here

I'm Dreaming of an Oil Crisis

Not like the ones I used to know

Where the Oil Sheiks are praying

Matt Simmons is saying

We're finally coming to Peak Oil

I'm Dreaming of an Oil Crisis

Where every Well is in decline

May your brand new hybrid run fine

And may all those Tar Sands flow like wine



http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=D7D5n_xpjBA

"Energy Roundtable"
December 13, 2008
Listen to 1hr Interview with
Matt Simmons &
Dr Robert L Hirsch

Discussing Global Oil
& Energy situation

Watch Videos

Matt Simmons
CEO Simmons Int'l (Bloomberg):

 
 

Peak Oil Now, 
will Oil reach $300
per barrel?
p

 

 

Peak Moment
New Info by Matt Simmons

PDF
Slide Show

A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash - "Deal With Reality or Reality Will Deal With You"

Watch this Online now

We're not prepared for what's around the corner, and that's the message  of the film

Now available on DVD

Peak Oil Crash -
A Crude Awakening

View Video Clips
Clip 1
Clip 2
Clip 3

Known as Gator Gap

the ever growing gap between
oil consumption
and
oil discoveries

What does it mean
for each of us?

Does it mean the world will run out of oil?  No

 

Fast declining Net Energy


Is the cost of producing oil rising?
Yes

 

The end of the Oil Era

How long will it remain viable to produce oil ?

Oil -- who needs it?  We do, obviously.  Or we think we do!

Oil makes the world go around. It heats our homes, runs our cars, powers our societies, finances economic development -- and triggers international wars. But the world's oil supplies are running out -- fast.
Some think the global supply of oil has already "peaked"; we are already using up the second half of the planet's supply. With a fast-growing global population, how much time do we have before the demand for oil vastly outstrips supply? Some analysts think we will face resource wars in our own lifetime, and a global economic depression provoked by our dependence on oil. The result, according to A Crude Awakening, a new documentary, could be a petrochemical apocalypse. Hydrocarbon Man is doomed.

What is Peak Oil?       
 
Peak Oil -
An article by Karrde

Well there is a big misconception about what ‘peak oil’ really is. Many people believe that when we reach ‘peak oil’ the world will run out of oil. This is far from the truth and in reality we have more oil in this earth than we could use for centuries to come. Read More
New to Peak Oil?

If this is the first time you are hearing about Peak Oil, you are among the majority of the population. Peak Oil doesn't mean 'running out of oil', but rather 'running out of cheap and plentiful oil'. Inexpensive oil supports our very way of life, as we know it. It is crucial for our transportation, food production, economy and basically everything that we use on a daily basis.
Read more at
http://www.crudeawakening.org/

______________________________________________________________
Watch Crude Oil Prices in Real Time courtesy http://oil-price.net/ 
Prices quoted in US$  move mouse across graph for more info

Ultimately, the energy-intensive industrial age may be little more than a blip in the course of human history:

Graph: The Energy Curve of History?
Source: Community Solution

Associated Links

Peak oil is near: IEA ‘whistleblower’ NZ Stock Exchange - 10 November 2009
Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower - UK Guardian - 9 November 2009
"Peak Oil" has Gone  Puru Saxena - Hong Kong - 21 August 2009
Economist's warning: Oil supplies are running out fast Source 3 August 2009
China moves to stockpile oil while it's cheap
Source  19 February 2009
Matt Simmons: Peak Oil Will Dwarf Financial Crunch Soon
The Trouble with Tar Sands  David Suzuki Foundation - Learn what is happening to Canadian Tar Sands
Post Carbon Institute  Annual rate of oil output decline is now 9.1 per cent per year
Fuel innovation necessary    Times & Transcript, New Brunswick, Canada - Charles W. Moore  -  July 30th, 2008
The End Of The World As You Know It - by Michael T. Klare - 16 April, 2008
Yankee Ticket Prices And Fossil Fuels - by James Hansen - 15 April, 2008
Ten Ways to Prepare for a Post-Oil Society   The Canadian - 1 Feb 2008
Be prepared by Dave Hansford It makes sense to get ready for the next oil shock. NZ Listener - 26 January 2008
Hubbert's Peak for Global Oil Production a PowerPoint presentation
Oil Crash reveals that within the next year or two......
World about to get a crude awakening
  NZ  Herald - 7 November 2007
This Chart Will Scare You by Sean Brodrick - 31 October 2007
$100 a Barrel Oil  We need to quickly find a middle ground between complacency and panic - 23 October 2007
Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest.........Guardian U.K. - 22 October 2007
http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html a perspective of where oil production in world is at..........
A Crude Awakening Time to wake up! The end of cheap oil is upon us......
Life After the Oil Crash - "Deal With Reality or Reality Will Deal With You"

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