Peak oil
is here! We need to find the middle ground between complacency
and
panic.
Deal with reality or reality
will deal with you!
We have now passed Peak Oil which began back in 1979 (some
disagree with this date but all concede we have past peak oil) the
decline is unavoidable. Few can conceive of what lies ahead.
Complacency reigns. By far the great majority of people, including
those at the very top in all strata of society, including governments,
industry, and the media, will be caught unawares.
Our Dependence
on
Fossil Fuel
MUST CHANGE
so what is the answer?
The "FOREVER
OIL CRASH" has already begun
Remember, it's the
Halfway Point that Matters
Supplies go down the prices go up.
It's simple economics
Remember, once it's burned,
it's gone for good!
"Yes, but Couldn't One Huge Discovery...
or Alaska...
or Deep-water Drilling...
Change the Equation?"
Unfortunately, Absolutely Not...
Matt Simmons
CEO Simmons Int'l
Investment banker to the oil and gas industry
Author of "Twilight in the Desert" The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and
the World Economy.
that's the day the rest
of the world
will wake up to the reality of "Peak Oil"...
by tail spinning into chaos!
Saudi Arabia currently supplies about
73%
of all the worlds new oil.
No matter what anybody tells you — or
what you want to believe — we're not heading into
a "recovery." Rather, we're plunging headlong into what
could easily be the most vicious and unpredictable
financial cycle of the past 150 years!
Out of the 65 biggest oil-producing
countries, 54 have already slammed into the wall of peak
production. That's serious.
When Dr. Hubbert first revealed his "Peak
Oil" predictions, he explained that just before and
after the "peak," there would be short plateau of FLAT
oil production... followed by a steep collapse.
Guess what's happening right now.
US
Libya
Kuwait
Iran
Canada conv
Romania
Brunei
Peru
Russia
Alaska
India
Indonesia
Trinidad
China
Venezuela
UK
Australia
Norway
Mexico
Malaysia
Energy minister will hold summit to calm rising
fears over peak oil A
report last month warned of complacency over the huge dislocation from a
terminal decline in global oil production. .....He is convinced that Britain
must prepare as quickly as possible for a situation when oil becomes so
expensive that international trade is hampered and globalisation breaks down.
The UK needs to take action to avoid the massive dislocation that could be
caused by the early onset of "peak oil" – the point that marks the start of
terminal decline in global oil production.
Source UK Guardian 21 Mar 2010
Do we heed the warnings
or
do we carry onoblivious
Things will change!
What can we do about it?
NEW IEA REPORT ON OIL
PRODUCTION - 11 November 2009
IEA - International Energy Agency
Chart showing PEAK CONVENTIONAL OIL
is past
Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure,
says whistleblower. The world is much closer to
running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a
whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it
has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of
triggering panic buying.
Source
Claims Agency Has Downplayed Looming Oil Shortage
- IEA Whistleblower
Source
Oil Production Capacity Deliberately Overstated -
says IEA WhistleblowerSource
PEAK
OIL – THE RISKS
We’re in trouble. With a capital “T,” and that rhymes with “P,” and that
stands for Peak Oil. By every measure, the world’s output of crude oil peaked
between 2005 and 2007. The future of conventional petroleum output is downhill.
Things could go wrong with energy supplies in any of a dozen places, according
to Mr. Simmons, he expects net oil exports from Mexico to vanish within 24
months or less.
But even without a supply shock, Simmons believes that the mere inevitability
of declining production will cause oil to hit $200 a barrel by the end of next
year. Longer term, Mr. Simmons expects to see oil at $500-700 per barrel. “People
need to understand how expensive it is to obtain oil,” said Simmons.
Much of the world’s energy infrastructure is old and rusting and will require
several trillions of dollars to replace – if it can be replaced.
Source
PEAK OIL - THE END OF CHEAP OIL Former Holden Chief's Grim
Warning
Buy an LPG car now or get used to walking.That's
the warning you would have heard issued on Radio Australia yesterday.
Not by some greenie or "Peak Oil" nut. No, this prediction comes, amazingly
enough, from
former advanced engineering chief at
General Motors Holden, Professor Laurie Spark.He's
the latest industry insider that's joined the argument we've been making for the
12 months:
Professor Sparke says when the global economic downturn is over, demand for oil
is going to far
outstrip supply and prices will go through the roof."As
soon as the countries that use large amounts of oil for their industry - China,
India, Japan, USA - recover, demand will exceed supply," he said."There are signs already that the economy in China is starting to pick up and
Japan's picking up, and already this year we've seen the price of oil double
from January to July. So my expectation is within the next five years, we're
going to have trouble."Some think
trouble could come much sooner.
The issue is deceptively simple.Australia's
reliance on foreign oil will increase two thirds by 2015. But the amount
of foreign oil on the market is projected to shrink by 25% within three
years. That's critical. But it's not the core of the problem
What really keeps us awake at nightis
the fact that Canberra hasnopolicy
in place to deal with what's about to happen.How will this crisis unfold?
New
Zealand is in a similar position where the Government has no policy for the
coming peak oil and end of cheap oil.
In a collapsing post-oil world, what
chance would there be for our re-supply oil tankers making it past Papua
New Guinea or even Tasmania? A sharp reassessment of the true cost of
oil would hurt us anyway. Nowhere is harder to reach by ship or plane,
so an era of permanently higher fuel prices could devastate our tourist
industry, cripple our food exports.
Read Full article from The Press, Christchurch,
NZ - 11 July, 2009
Part 1
Part 2
Question:
What effect does the
Current World,
Financial Crisis,
World
Recession,
Energy Crisis,
have on
decline
on
Fossil Fuels?
Answer:
A more rapid decline
than was previously anticipated
see graph
Supplies of conventional oil did peak in 2005 and
that “the game is over”
Crude oil supplies are currently declining at
over 9% per year and that this is structural
The prospects of finding more oil are negligible
The current recession
must be seen as the first global effect of
the now rapid decline in net energy from
oil and gas.
IF current trends continue without
finding alternative sources of energy
2008: each person on earth has about
4.5 bbl per year of crude to live on.
2013: oil availability per head is
down to 3.3 bbl
2030: oil availability per head
plummets down to 0.4 bbl per head
By 2013 standard of living standards will drop by 27%
By 2030 earning power drops to about $9 per day or less than
$4,000 pa
This is frightening, there is
real urgency to find alternatives and time is short!
Disrupted transport fuel supplies mean disrupted power
and communications supplies regardless of the temporary availability of
other fossil fuels (gas and/or coal). None of the existing energy,
transport and communications infrastructures can cope with the
crisis that is unfolding in two intimately related
waves, energy crisis first and rapid ecological degradation next.
•
The Emergency – it is
global, it is under way, less than 10 years remain to address it if the
worst is to be avoided. It threatens the survival of the human species
as a whole and of some 95% of the whole of life on Earth.
• The Emergency Response
– over the next 10 years it is necessary to achieve
globally a radical turn away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable
ways based on solar derived energy resources
We need transition to
new sustainable ways of doing business and living.
Right at the forefront they require a complete re-engineering of all
information, communications, energy and transport infrastructures in
record time.
Governments are ill equipped to respond quickly
to achieve changes on such a global scale. Only
entrepreneurship has a track record demonstrating the feasibility of
achieving a transition to sustainability within the required timeframe.
Australia and New Zealand must
expect severe supply
disruptions before by 2013 as the supply gap between global demand
widens. The super powers, the USA, the EU, Russia, Japan and China are
already taking measure to ensure their needs and Australia and New
Zealand are extremely vulnerable and are likely to be among the
first of the industrialised countries to experience severe supply
disruptions.
IT MDI – Energy
100% Solar and Sustainable Initiativewith
their Information, Communication,
Energy, Transport (ICET) technology package
and the related business and financial models have been explicitly
designed to achieve the rapid transition required.
Read More (Great cartoon Page 6!)
DID YOU KNOW
NOW
2010
or earlier????
Oil reached $100
a barrel
in January 2008
Oil is expect to double in
next 2 years
Are you prepared?
What are the alternatives?
What impact will this have on your budget, you
work, cost of food, mortgage, transport.
Think about it..
New Zealand Oil price drops but no fall
in petrol cost - PAIN AT THE PUMP
Average fuel prices:
January 3: US-traded Brent crude US$100 a barrel, highest
ever. 91 octane 171.6c a litre, diesel 125.8c.
February 4: US-traded Brent crude US$88.98 a barrel, 91
octane 170.9ca litre, diesel 120.9c-125.9c.
Source
Question who is ripping who off? Will our fuel be
$3.50 or $4.00 a litre in two years? Oil companies making
record profits
Maybe the consumer needs an alternative!
Think
Compressed Air for Transport and Electricity Generation!
PAIN AT THE PUMP
In May 2008 Petrol
Prices in New Zealand topped $2.00
mark for the first time!
Yet few people realise we have reached
"Peak Oil"
and prices will only continue to rise.
The world need to address this urgently and seek, new and
sustainable, environmentally friendly solutions.
Think
Compressed Air for Transport
and Electricity Generation!
Peak Oil,
Climate Change
& All That Jazz
An e-Book by Dr Louis Arnoux Managing
Director of IT-MDI Energy Ltd
the ever
growing gap between
oil consumption
and
oil discoveries
What does it mean
for each of us?
Does it mean the world will run out of oil? No
Fast declining
Net Energy
Is the cost of producing oil rising?
Yes
The end of the Oil Era
How long will it remain viable to produce oil
?
Oil -- who needs
it? We do, obviously. Or we think we do!
Oil makes the world go around.
It heats our homes, runs our cars, powers our societies,
finances economic development -- and triggers international
wars. But the world's oil supplies are running out -- fast.
Some think the global supply of oil has
already "peaked"; we are already using up the second half of
the planet's supply. With a fast-growing global population,
how much time do we have before the demand for oil vastly
outstrips supply? Some analysts think we will face resource
wars in our own lifetime, and a global economic depression
provoked by our dependence on oil. The result, according to
A Crude Awakening, a new documentary,
could be a petrochemical apocalypse. Hydrocarbon Man is
doomed.
What is Peak Oil?
Peak Oil -
An article by Karrde
Well there is a big misconception about what ‘peak oil’ really is.
Many people believe that when we reach ‘peak oil’ the world will run
out of oil. This is far from the truth and in reality we have more
oil in this earth than we could use for centuries to come.
Read More
New to Peak Oil?
If this is the first time you are hearing about Peak Oil, you are
among the majority of the population. Peak Oil doesn't mean 'running
out of oil', but rather 'running out of cheap and plentiful oil'.
Inexpensive oil supports our very way of life, as we know it. It is
crucial for our transportation, food production, economy and
basically everything that we use on a daily basis.
Read more at
http://www.crudeawakening.org/
______________________________________________________________
Watch Crude Oil Prices in Real Time
courtesy
http://oil-price.net/
Prices quoted in US$ move mouse across graph for more
info
Ultimately, the energy-intensive industrial
age may be little more than a blip in the course of human
history:
PEAK OIL
A
report last month warned of complacency over the huge dislocation from a
terminal decline in global oil production. .....He is convinced that Britain
must prepare as quickly as possible for a situation when oil becomes so
expensive that international trade is hampered and globalisation breaks down.
PEAK
OIL – THE RISKS
This is frightening, there is
real urgency to find alternatives and time is short!
